Football Forecast

Week 5: Distancing Week
For many of the top contenders this week proves a chance to distance themselves in the race for playoff positioning, but we still have a few quality showdowns of ranked foes to lead the slate. Our prognosticators had their best finish of the season a week ago while correctly picking nearly 82 percent of the winners in all classes, including a dandy 26-4 slate in Class 2A. Let's see if they can keep it going with several tough choices.
Last Week: 142-32 (.816); Season: 552-167 (.768)

The Big Ten

#2 Tulsa East Central at #5 Coweta
Our Take: (Class 5A) Although Claremore will also figure in the mix, the winner of this game gets a big leg up on the District 5A-4 title race. East Central has claimed the last two meetings by a combined seven points and this year’s version figures to be much the same. The Cardinals will be facing one of the class’s top run-pass threats in Coweta QB Hayden Holmes, who has accounted for over 900 total yards and 12 scores in four games. However, the East Central defense he’ll be facing will be one of the toughest and fastest.
Our Pick: Tulsa East Central 22, Coweta 20

#4 McGuinness at #8 Carl Albert
Our Take: (Class 5A) There likely won’t be a time to panic at Carl Albert this season, but if there ever was a time, it’s getting close. The Titans enter the game with a 1-3 record and are in the midst of a brutal stretch in which they play Deer Creek (already lost), the Irish and then No. 1 Guthrie. If the Titans don’t win at least one of the three, they’ll be looking at a likely fourth-place finish in the district and that’s only if they survive both El Reno and Northwest. It’s not what Carl Albert’s used to. The reason for the struggles is a lack of playmaking on an offense that’s scoring just over 19 points a game. That’s not good news considering they’ll be facing an Irish defense that’s surrendered just 30 points all season. Carl Albert is a proud program and still a good team, but it’s likely its struggles aren’t finished.
Our Pick: McGuinness 21, Carl Albert 20

#3 Cascia Hall at #6 Sallisaw
Our Take: (Class 4A) Cascia Hall puts its 47-game district win streak on the line, but this time it’s in Class 4A, where the Commandos have landed this year. They’ll see one of the best, if not the best, all-around threats at QB in Sallisaw’s Ben Oberste, who has accounted for nearly 900 yards and eight TDs already this season. However, this will be the best defense Oberste has seen and likely will see all season. Cascia Hall has surrendered just 32 points all season and always hangs its hat on suffocating teams on that side of the ball. If Oberste can find the time to make the plays, he’ll give his team a chance.
Our Pick: Cascia Hall 21, Sallisaw 14

#1 Berryhill at #6 Verdigris
Our Take: (Class 3A) Verdigris has been on the cusp the last couple of years of announcing its arrival as a true contender. The Cardinals have backed it up thus far, averaging over 44 points a game and beating teams by nearly 33 behind the running of tailback Tanner Smith, who has over 800 yards and 10 scores. However, it’s a big step up in competition this week as Berryhill stays among the state’s elite in Class 3A. The Chiefs opened the season with a hard-fought win over Glenpool and have continued to play well on the strength of Zach Johnson’s arm. You know the Verdigris crowd and team will be fired up for this one. If the Cardinals can keep their emotions in check early, they might just be in store for that “arrival” they’ve been waiting for.
Our Pick: Verdigris 27, Berryhill 26

#5 Frederick at #7 Lindsay
Our Take: (Class 2A) Senior quarterback Trevor Flores has been incredible for Frederick's high-octane offensive attack that is averaging nearly 59 points a contest. He has thrown for 1,305 yards and 15 touchdowns while being picked off just twice. An amazing seven different Bomber receivers have more than 100 yards, topped by Grant Hoover's 458 and five scores. Lindsay meanwhile was the pre-season favorite in District 2A-3 and hasn't been too shabby while averaging nearly 36 points a contest led by sophomore signal caller Jake Standridge and a host of veteran receivers. May come down to the team with the ball last.
Our Pick: Frederick 38, Lindsay 35

#8 Sequoyah Claremore at #4 Seminole
Our Take: (Class 3A) This contest has no district implications, but it will give both teams an idea of where they stand in the Class 3A pecking order. Both teams have already faced at least one stout opponent as Seq. Claremore dropped a Week 2 decision to 4A Sallisaw and Seminole has wins over Lincoln Christian and Perkins-Tryon. In those two wins, Seminole gave up a combined 20 points, meaning its defense has been able to step up when it counts. That will be the difference in this contest.
Our Pick: Seminole 27, Seq. Claremore 21

#8 Dewar at #5 Davenport
Our Take: (Class B) Davenport is 3-1 on the season but has been a bit of a disappointment the past two weeks, suffering a 64-22 walloping at the hands of Wetumka before squeezing by Weleetka 36-34 for a surprisingly narrow victory. QB Matt Miller has been putting up quality numbers but not the eye-popping stats of the opening two weeks. This one is a pivotal matchup for the Bulldogs, who are already in a hole in district play with the loss to Wetumka. Dewar meanwhile has sailed under the radar to a perfect 4-0 start to the season that has included averaging more than 61 points an outing. This is easily the Dragons' toughest assignment to date however.
Our Pick: Dewar 38, Davenport 32

#7 Webbers Falls at #8 Thackerville
Our Take: (Class C) Much like last year's terrific run to the playoffs Webbers Falls has been largely unchallenged against teams from the eastern side of the state. The Warriors' closest game yet has been a 26-point triumph over Wright Christian led by veteran quarterback Jamie Carey and a massive offensive line. Their first big test comes this week against a western team (although they are in the same district this year) in Thackerville. The Wildcats suffered a 42-8 loss to Ryan three weeks ago but bounced back with a solid 54-32 win against Maud last Friday spurred by Tanner McCage and Jesse Maldonado. Both can put up huge offensive numbers so look for some fireworks.
Our Pick: Thackerville 58, Webbers Falls 52

#10 Tulsa McLain at #1 Wagoner
Our Take: (Class 4A) Most people had McLain to be much improved after a strong finish to reach the playoffs a season ago but a 4-0 start is likely a pleasant surprise to many. QB Demetri Walker has already thrown for more than 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns and will be the key in trying to provide a bit of payback for last year's 48-0 shellacking by the Bulldogs. Even though they have an early loss on their resume, Wagoner has continued to roll along offensively with Lawrence Evitt being the squad's catalyst with 874 yards on the ground and nine touchdowns.
Our Pick: Wagoner 28, Tulsa McLain 21

#3 Thomas at Apache
Our Take: (Class A) A perfect 4-0 start by Thomas was fairly expected by the Terrier faithful who have seen their team return as a perennial state contender in Class A. That run includes what has turned into a very impressive 28-14 win over Alva in Week 1. The same can't quite be said for resurgent Apache, which was picked fifth in district play after going just 1-9 a season ago. The Warriors are 4-0 and haven't really even been challenged while averaging nearly 42 points while allowing just eight. Great chance for the Warriors to make a statement at home and see just how far they have come in less than a year.
Our Pick: Thomas 24, Apache 14

Statewide Picks

Class 6A
Thursday
Putnam North 42, Moore 14

Friday
Broken Arrow 38, Bixby 14
Edmond North 42, Lawton Ike 7
Edmond Santa Fe 48, Mustang 42
Enid 34, Tulsa Washington 28
Jenks 48, Sapulpa 8
Lawton 45, Choctaw 7
Midwest City 58, U.S. Grant 0
Norman 42, Edmond Memorial 7
Norman North 33, Yukon 22
Owasso 49, Ponca City 12
Putnam City 45, Tulsa Edison 10
Sand Springs 33, Bartlesville 31
Southmoore 49, Putnam West 14
Union 35, Stillwater 21
Westmoore 38, Muskogee 14

Class 5A
Friday
Chickasha 48, Capitol Hill 0
Claremore 35, Tahlequah 10
Collinsville 31, Grove 8
Deer Creek 52, El Reno 14
Del City 36, Ardmore 13
Duncan 34, Altus 12
Guthrie 63, Western Heights 0
Lawton Mac 41, Southeast 6
McAlester 49, Shawnee 20
McGuinness 21, Carl Albert 20
Northwest Classen 48, Guymon 7
Pryor 29, Tulsa Central 13
Skiatook 23, Tulsa Hale 16
Tulsa East Central 22, Coweta 20
Tulsa Kelley 30, Durant 13
Tulsa Memorial 44, Noble 28

Class 4A
Friday
Ada 36, Tecumseh 12
Anadarko 42, Elk City 0
Cascia Hall 21, Sallisaw 14
Catoosa 41, Miami 6
Cleveland 34, Vinita 7
Clinton 38, Elgin 13
Douglass 54, Mannford 0
Fort Gibson 28, Broken Bow 20
Glenpool 21, Harrah 20
McLoud 56, Santa Fe South 12
Muldrow 25, Tulsa Rogers 22
Oologah 35, Tulsa Webster 0
Piedmont 48, Cache 24
Poteau 49, Stilwell 0
Wagoner 28, Tulsa McLain 21
Weatherford 14, Woodward 7

Class 3A
Thursday
Newcastle 31, OK Centennial 8

Friday
Beggs 27, Okmulgee 24
Blanchard 31, Bridge Creek 14
Chandler 22, Prague 19
Cushing 24, Bristow 21
Dewey 27, Sperry 20
Dickson 38, Pauls Valley 27
Henryetta 34, Morris 13
Heritage Hall 42, John Marshall 7
Hilldale 23, Inola 21
Idabel 29, Spiro 28
Jones 48, Bethel 7
Kingfisher 35, Star Spencer 8
Lincoln Christian 27, Jay 14
Locust Grove 29, Westville 9
Lone Grove 27, Atoka 24
Madill 42, Purcell 21
Metro Christian 42, Blackwell 12
Mount St. Mary 31, Marlow 23
Perkins-Tryon 31, Bethany 17
Plainview 34, Sulphur 15
Roland 30, Heavener 24
Seminole 27, Seq. Claremore 21
Seq. Tahlequah 35, Keys 14
Stigler 41, Eufaula 17
Tuttle 49, Little Axe 7
Valliant 27, Checotah 25
Verdigris 27, Berryhill 26
Victory Christian 39, Kellyville 10

Class 2A
Thursday
Dibble 55, Northeast 6

Friday
Adair 28, Nowata 14
Alva 34, Perry 18
Caney Valley 29, Pawhuska 13
Chouteau 19, Oklahoma Union 17
Coalgate 34, Tishomingo 9
Colcord 24, Salina 20
Comanche 31, Mangum 12
Davis 42, Lexington 0
Drumright 14, Wellston 12
Frederick 38, Lindsay 35
Hartshorne 30, Panama 18
Haskell 42, Holdenville 12
Hennessey 41, Chisholm 7
Hinton 48, Riverside 10
Hobart 23, Washington 20
Hugo 29, Pocola 22
Hulbert 21, Wyandotte 19
Kansas 22, Commerce 21
Kingston 27, Konawa 20
Luther 28, Crooked Oak 27
Millwood 38, Christian Heritage 8
Newkirk 33, Chelsea 13
Okemah 31, Meeker 13
Oklahoma Christian 39, Tulsa NOAH 14
Quapaw 22, Ketchum 21
Stratford 30, Marietta 28
Stroud 39, Mounds 10
Tonkawa 22, Pawnee 17
Vian 62, Antlers 6
Wilburton 28, Regent Prep 21

Class A
Thursday
Savanna 57, Haileyville 0

Friday
Beaver 21, Oklahoma Bible 18
Canadian 23, Gore 21
Cashion 56, Pioneer 0
Central Sallisaw 28, Quinton 21
Cordell 24, Carnegie 14
Crescent 42, Crossings Christian 13
Elmore City 27, Wewoka 25
Empire 44, Walters 7
Fairview 63, Turpin 0
Hollis 28, Snyder 13
Kiefer 46, Depew 0
Liberty 43, Fairland 27
Minco 27, Watonga 14
Morrison 38, Hominy 14
OKC Legion 20, Afton 13
Okeene 24, Hooker 22
Ringling 41, Healdton 12
Rush Springs 36, Bray-Doyle 8
Sayre 32, Burns Flat 24
Summit Christian 62, Foyil 18
Talihina 33, Union Christian, AR 0
Texhoma 27, Mooreland 14
Thomas 24, Apache 14
Velma-Alma 53, Wilson 6
Warner 33, Porter 7
Wayne 38, Caddo 7
Wynnewood 62, Maysville 0
Yale 34, Barnsdall 20

Class B
Friday
Alex 54, OCA 6
Allen 32, Geary 26
Central Marlow 44, Paoli 28
Covington-Douglas 32, Ringwood 30
Coyle 46, Copan 0
Dewar 38, Davenport 32
Fox 50, Macomb 0
Gans 58, Cave Springs 6
Garber 68, Seiling 40
Laverne 54, Medford 0
Merritt 56, Canton 24
Pond Creek-Hunter 60, Waukomis 14
Rejoice Christian 42, Agra 34
South Coffeyville 36, Oaks 34
Strother 52, Bowlegs 48
Waurika 36, Cyril 26
Welch 52, Riverfield 6
Weleetka 28, Keota 24
Wetumka 64, Porum 12
Woodland 48, Watts 0

Class C
Thursday
Maud 62, Destiny Christian 54

Friday
Balko 34, Buffalo 30
Bluejacket 56, Wesleyan Christian 48
Bokoshe at Midway
Cherokee 48, Mountain View-Gotebo 0
Deer Creek-Lamont 64, Carney 14
Grandfield 58, Gracemont 12
Kremlin-Hillsdale 48, Claremore Christian 18
Ryan 56, Corn Bible 20
Sharon-Mutual 54, Boise City 6
Shattuck 32, Tyrone 28
Southwest Covenant 44, Arkoma 16
Temple 44, Cement 18
Thackerville 58, Webbers Falls 52
Timberlake 36, Prue 24
Tipton 54, Duke 0
Waynoka 28, Goodwell 20

article updated on 09/27/12 09:42