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Football Forecast: Week 12 Big Ten & Picks

It was a rough week in Class 2A with seven of our 19 losses, but we helped make up for it with a perfect 8-0 mark in Class B and finished with a respectable 76 percent for playoff week 1. Things get a lot more interesting this week with several toss-up matchups, including most of the Big 10.

Last Week: 61-19 (.763); Overall: 1468-346 (.809)




#4 Carl Albert at #2 Tulsa Kelley

Our Take: (Class 5A) Sure, things did go Carl Albert's way early on last week. Sure, that may have led to the Titans' lopsided win against Lawton Mac. But don't think it was a fluke. This is playoff time, which means it's Carl Albert's time to shine. The Titans became a bit of a forgotten team with losses to Booker T. Washington and Shawnee this season. However, Carl Albert appears to be playing its best football down the stretch. Tulsa Kelley, meanwhile, has suffered no such setbacks. The Comets even knocked off Booker T., 28-14, in Week 4, suprising just about everyone. They did it (unbeaten regular season) with a balanced offensive attack and a defense that hasn't given up more than 17 points in a game this season. Logic might say to pick the Comets as they do have the balance, the defense and home field. However, we think Carl Albert is primed to win a big game this season. This has to be it.  Our Pick: Carl Albert 23, Tulsa Kelley 21

#2 McGuinness at #6 Sallisaw

Our Take: (Class 4A) This is another intriguing matchup because it pits Sallisaw's dangerous offensive attack against the suffocating McGuinness defense. Is this the same Irish defense that won titles in 2006 and 2007 and finished runner-up last year? No, but it's still fairly stingy, having given up a touchdown or less in five of 11 games this season, including last week's shutout of Tecumseh. Overall its gives up 11.4 points a game. It will line up against a Black Diamond offense that is quite prolific in its own right. Sallisaw averages nearly 400 yards and 31 points a contest. It has scored 38 or more points four times. BUT...it's also got a defense that gives up an average of 20 points a game, which might be the difference. The McGuinness offense isn't flashy, but it can put points on the board. In this case, it will do just enough to go back to OKC with a win.  Our Pick: McGuinness 17, Sallisaw 16

#6 Seq. Claremore at #2 Tuttle

Our Take: (Class 3A) If you like good, old fashioned smash mouth football this is likely the game for you. Both teams rely heavily on their tough, aggressive offensive fronts to control the line of scrimmage and open holes for a hard-nosed ground attack. After missing time with an injury, Tuttle's Ethan Biddy returned to the lineup a week ago and notched another workman-like effort. The senior has rushed for 1,122 yards and 13 touchdowns to go along with Tanner Koons' 543 yards and six scores. Sequoyah's Wing-T attack put up a whopping 494 yards on the ground last week with Cody Richardson sparking the attack. Michael Wangsgard is the rushing ringleader for the season with 793 yards and 11 touchdowns. Look for defense to be the key and Tuttle can do that with the best of them. The Tigers yield a Class 3A low 58 points for the season as well as just over 84 yards per game on the ground. Something has to give and we don't expect that to be the 11-0 Tigers in a showdown that could easily be finished by 10 p.m.  Our Pick: Tuttle 20, Seq. Claremore 14

#8 Bartlesville at #4 Southmoore

Our Take: (Class 6A) Bartlesville did exactly what we thought a week ago, which was go on the road, take on a tough defensive team and squeak out a win. Southmoore didn't exactly follow our script. We thought the Sabercats would roll in their first-ever playoff game. Instead, they needed a last-second field goal to narrowly escape Lawton Ike. However, we think Southmoore had its eyes opened in the first round. Nothing will be taken for granted. And although the Bartlesville defense was strong against Owasso, the Rams haven't exactly been juggernauts on that side of the ball. Southmoore is. The Sabercats haven't been held under 20 points and have a strong defense. Bartlesville can put up points, but gives them up as well. That costs the Bruins their season this week.  Our Pick: Southmoore 35, Bartlesville 28

#7 Kingfisher at #5 Bridge Creek

Our Take: (Class 2A) Staggering. That's one of the ways to describe the offensive performance Bridge Creek put on a week ago. The Bobcats' 78 points in a 78-34 thumping of Atoka was the most scored in a regulation (non-overtime) Oklahoma playoff game in 23 years. It's a true balanced attack for Bridge Creek with quarterback Ryan Spangler and his 2,769 yards and 29 touchdowns through the air. Amazingly, he's only been intercepted four times in 299 pass attempts for the season. Blake Henderson adds a big-time ground threat with 1,445 yards rushing and 2A best 26 touchdowns on the ground. While the Kingfisher combination of Derek Patterson (1,386 yards, 13 TDs passing) and Jacob York (1,015 yards, 12 TDs rushing) don't possess the same mind-numbing statistics, they are backed by one of the premier defenses in the class, allowing just 10.7 points and 209 yards per outing. Standout linebacker Rhett Blundell and his monster 157 tackles will his work cut out in trying to slow a Bobcat arsenal that's only been held under 42 points twice in the past 10 weeks. We think they can just enough.  Our Pick: Kingfisher 28, Bridge Creek 27

#3 Broken Arrow at #6 Midwest City

Our Take: (Class 6A) During the last two years, Midwest City has gotten its shot at "the big boys," seeing its season end in the semifinals to both Jenks and Union. Now the Bombers get their shot at the biggest of them all...at least by way of enrollment...as Broken Arrow comes to town. Although the Bombers have put up scores like 63, 56 and 51 in recent weeks, you still get the feeling this unit doesn't have the same explosiveness as the semifinal squads from the last two years. Meanwhile, Broken Arrow will visit with a trio of solid running backs, attempt to chew minutes off the clock and keep putting pressure on the Bomber defense. That defense proved up to the task a week ago as it held a potent PC North team to 16 points. However, Broken Arrow is just a little bit better than the Panthers in about every aspect. Good enough, in fact, to get the playoff win on the road.  Our Pick: Broken Arrow 34, Midwest City 17

#6 McAlester at #3 El Reno

Our Take: (Class 5A) This is easily one of the tougher Round 2 matchups in the state. The two teams have combined to play 22 games and lose just one of them this season - McAlester's 22-6 setback to East Central. El Reno had high expectations entering the season, its second under coach Tom Cobble (in his second stint at the school), but it might be safe to say even those have been exceeded. El Reno's 14-7 Week 10 victory against Duncan was the only time an Indians' opponent played them in the single digits. That's not to say McAlester hasn't been impressive as it has quality wins over Broken Bow, Tulsa Central and Ada this season (by an average of 9 points). These are two quality defenses that feature offenses that can make the big play at any time. We just think El Reno's might be a little bit better...and the experience factor could come up big.  Our Pick: El Reno 17, McAlester 7

#7 Broken Bow at #1 Weatherford

Our Take: (Class 4A) Since losing three of their first four contests, Broken Bow has been on a roll, reeling off seven straight victories. The constant in each of those is defense. Only once did the Savages allow more than a touchdown and that was 14 points in a 35-14 triumph against Muldrow. Sophomore Eric Dockins has been the workhorse out of the Broken Bow backfield since returning from an early injury. He's the leading rusher in Class 4A with 1,632 yards and 23 touchdowns in just nine contests. This week, however, will be the most physical unit they have faced in the current winning streak. Weatherford was surprising early on and has steadily built steam ever since, notching wins over second round playoff teams from Clinton, Heritage Hall, McGuinness and Douglass - three of which came on the road - during an 11-0 run. The Eagle offense led by Jake Barrios and Kale Sawatzky has only been held under 31 points twice (against McGuinness and Douglass). That pair are stalwarts on defense as well. Broken Bow has the playoff experience edge, with state semifinal appearances each of the past two years but Weatherford has found a knack for winning close games no matter the opponent. That and home field advantage make the difference.  Our Pick: Weatherford 18, Broken Bow 14

#10 Pawnee at #3 Stroud

Our Take: (Class A) It's a similar situation to a year ago for Stroud. The Tigers rolling into the second round of the playoffs with one of the top statistical offenses and defenses in Class A. Problem is though, for the second straight season the Tigers have been largely untested outside of a Week 1 battle with Chandler, which Stroud won 22-14 en route to an 11-0 record. You can bet the Tigers fully remember last year's second round battle with a team from rugged District A-7, a game in which Morrison blasted them 41-7 on their home field. It's another A-7 contender in Pawnee, which has won eight in a row since dropping a 27-0 verdict to top-ranked Tonkawa. Pawnee allows a meager 9.4 points a game. Stroud an even better 6.6. Led by standout Cody Pritchard and his 1,400 yards rushing and 21 touchdowns, the Tigers have scored a Class A best 44.6 points a contest. Stroud won't score that many in this one but the Tigers are good enough to score more than they did in the second round a season ago.  Our Pick: Stroud 17, Pawnee 14

#2 Canton at #3 Porter

Our Take: (Class B) Porter is in the midst of its best season in school history, racing to an 11-0 record behind one of the top offensive units in Class B, which has only been held under 38 points once (a 28-22 win over Depew), averaging an eye lash under 47 points per game. Marcus Scarborough has thrown for 809 yards and 17 touchdowns while Nick Scarborough has added 1,042 yards rushing and 18 scores for the Pirates. This week, however, Porter faces its biggest obstacle against a Canton squad that has become one of the powers of the west, which have dominated Class B the past two seasons. The Tigers' lone blemish was a 38-6 loss to top-rated Garber. The numbers aren't quite as eye-popping as those of Porter, but Canton has played a bit tougher schedule that includes three teams that are still playing in the quarterfinals. Senior quarterback Colby Haigler has keyed the Canton offensive attack with his strong arm while linebacker stud Torre Meat keys the defensive side of the ball. Porter notched it's first playoff win in school history a week ago, but that run ends here.  Our Pick: Canton 38, Porter 20




Class 6A

Southmoore 35, Bartlesville 28

Jenks 45, Edmond Memorial 14

Broken Arrow 34, Midwest City 17

Union 38, Lawton 14

Class 5A

El Reno 17, McAlester 7

Carl Albert 23, Tulsa Kelley 21

Shawnee 24, Bixby 14

Tulsa East Central 22, Guthrie 7

Class 4A

Weatherford 18, Broken Bow 14

Douglass 27, Wagoner 17

Star Spencer 31, Oologah 13

McGuinness 17, Sallisaw 16

Class 3A

Tuttle 20, Seq. Claremore 14

Cascia Hall 35, Purcell 14

Blanchard 13, Berryhill 7

Clinton 33, Dewey 12

Class 2A

Heritage Hall 17, Lindsay 6

Pawhuska 20, Morris 19

Davis 27, John Marshall 20

Lincoln Christian 38, Beggs 14

Chandler 18, Verdigris 14

Millwood 35, Washington 14

Sperry 28, Stigler 14

Kingfisher 28, Bridge Creek 27

Class A

Hennessey 56, Carnegie 13

Talihina 28, Commerce 8

Ringling 24, Watonga 21

Tonkawa 49, Stratford 6

Stroud 17, Pawnee 14

Cashion 28, Velma-Alma 13

Salina 21, Central Sallisaw 12

Oklahoma Bible 20, Cordell 7

Class B

Garber 44, Kiefer 6

Davenport 36, Laverne 24

Ryan 34, Depew 30

Canton 38, Porter 20

Class C

Shattuck 28, DC-Lamont 22

Timberlake 52, Tipton 6

Seiling 24, Waynoka 20

Covington-Douglas 36, Forgan 30


Comments:

  • VSenior says:
    Well we were picked to lose against Sperry, Pawhuska, Nowata, and we won. It seems to be good luck when you pick against Verdigris.
    Posted On: 11/19/2009 9:43:28 AM
  • 8manDAD says:
    Man, I am soooo glad you guys picked against Depew! Now if the Tulsa World picks against us it is a lock!!
    Posted On: 11/19/2009 10:10:32 AM
  • Larry The Cable Guy says:
    Verdigris was also picked to lose against Lincoln I think. That didn't turn out to be too lucky. LOL.
    Posted On: 11/19/2009 11:59:38 AM
  • Larry The Cable Guy says:
    Come to think of it, probably were picked to lose against Sequoyah. Senior, that's only 3 of 5. Maybe you're a baseball player cause .600 would be pretty lucky there.
    Posted On: 11/19/2009 4:47:54 PM
  • VSenior says:
    Larry your an idiot.
    Posted On: 11/19/2009 9:49:13 PM
  • VSenior says:
    Your one of those people who just have to smart off. I wasnt being rude to the people who predicted the scores I was making a joke. IGNORANT
    Posted On: 11/19/2009 9:52:15 PM
  • 6AFan says:
    Interesting the one sided predictions-West vs East. Is CA and Daily OK trying to take up for West side schools while Tulsa World and VYPE are pro-east side?
    Posted On: 11/19/2009 10:45:05 PM
  • JimPat says:
    I picked 'em all last week and went 63-17. Key pick was Guthrie over Duncan.

    This week my key picks are Velma-Alma over Cashion and Depew over Ryan. Also, I'm not jumping on the Blanchard bandwagon. I'll stick with Berryhill. And look for Sallisaw to stop McGuinness.
    Posted On: 11/20/2009 12:11:31 PM
  • VSenior says:
    Hey you picked against Verdigris again. . and . . WE WON!! ;)
    Posted On: 11/21/2009 11:22:28 AM
  • Larry The Cable Guy says:
    And you're one of those people that just wants to whine all the time. I'll guarantee Verdigris loses this week against Millwood. Going to get spanked by the Falcons.
    Posted On: 11/21/2009 5:40:55 PM
  • VSenior says:
    Larry just shut your mouth. How old are you? You act like your 10, your arguing with a 17 year old. Please get a life.
    Posted On: 11/21/2009 6:15:12 PM
  • ryan 01 says:
    B-2 wins! GO COWBOYS!!!
    Posted On: 11/22/2009 11:17:04 AM
  • HS Sports Guru says:
    Now, now VSenior.
    Lets be civil and not have a bunch of name calling.

    Good win by Verdigris. Close one as we expected. We gave Chandler the slight edge with homefield advantage but the Cardinals cashed in the late turnover for the winning points.
    Posted On: 11/22/2009 2:10:07 PM
  • VSenior says:
    Well guru, you see in my first post I was not angry be any means that you picked against us. I just thought it was good luck. Also when someone like Larry wants to smart off, I will put him in his place by correctly identifying him as what he presented himself to be. Thanks Guru for the support on our win over Chandler. I expect for you to pick Millwood because of their tradition, but it is at Verdigris and we will be ready. Good luck on your 3rd round picks for 2A
    Posted On: 11/22/2009 4:48:15 PM
  • HS Sports Guru says:
    That was the only 2A game we picked incorrectly for the week. I'll tell our guy that picks 2A to take a look at that one closely for next weekend.
    Posted On: 11/22/2009 7:06:17 PM
  • VSenior says:
    Guru just to clear things up I still feel like you think I am angry about your guys picks. It doesnt bother me I was just making a joke. It seems like we win when you pick against us. ;)
    Posted On: 11/23/2009 9:39:07 AM
  • HS Sports Guru says:
    Not angry about anything here. It's all good. I think he may pick Millwood this week so you should be happy. lol
    Posted On: 11/23/2009 9:42:15 AM
  • VSenior says:
    O im pumped!!
    Posted On: 11/23/2009 9:55:30 AM

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